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Remo Stars vs Mamelodi Sundowns — CAF Champions League 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
10/19/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundGateway Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Remo Stars35%
×Draw24%
Mamelodi Sundowns41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.43
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 42 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
2.00
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.62

allows per match

Remo Stars
1.50
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.86

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
59%
Remo Stars or Mamelodi Sundowns
76%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
65%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
16%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
76%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
42%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
17%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
79%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
46%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
46%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 2.00 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.62 + Remo Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Remo Stars scores more
35%
level
24%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
41%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Remo Stars vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Remo Stars 5-1 in CAF Champions League on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Gateway Stadium in Ijebu-Ode.