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Remo Stars vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Remo Stars
Remo Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
A. Sikiru 17'
6/5/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 32Remo Stars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Remo Stars71%
×Draw22%
Gombe United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo Stars
1.74
Gombe United
0.40

Remo Stars creates 335% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 59 away

creates per match

Remo Stars
1.58
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Remo Stars
0.43
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Remo Stars+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo Stars ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Remo Stars or draw
92%
Remo Stars or Gombe United
78%
Draw or Gombe United
29%

Winning margin

Remo Stars wins by 2+
42%
Gombe United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Remo Stars 1+ goals
82%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
52%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
25%
Gombe United 1+ goals
33%
Gombe United 2+ goals
6%
Gombe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Remo Stars (draw refunded)
90%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.43 · 99 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo Stars attack 1.58 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.74

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Remo Stars defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Remo Stars scores more
71%
level
22%
Gombe United scores more
8%

Remo Stars at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Remo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
A. Abdulquadr
17'
A. Sikiru
19'
I. Ojukwu
29'
K. Chimezie
50'
A. Jimoh
54'
A. Abdulquadr
54'
A. Abdulquadr
64'
N. Junior
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Remo Stars 1 – 0 Gombe United

Remo Stars beat Gombe United 1-0 in NPFL on June 5, 2022.

Goals: A. Sikiru (17').

The match was played at Remo Stars Stadium in Ikenne.