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Gombe United vs Remo Stars — NPFL 2019

Gombe United
Gombe United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Remo Stars
Remo Stars
4/2/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 28Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Gombe United50%
×Draw28%
Remo Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gombe United
1.36
Remo Stars
0.80

Gombe United creates 70% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 99 away

creates per match

Gombe United
1.28
Remo Stars
0.78

allows per match

Gombe United
0.81
Remo Stars
1.44

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par
Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Remo Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw
78%
Gombe United or Remo Stars
72%
Draw or Remo Stars
50%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+
24%
Remo Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals
74%
Gombe United 2+ goals
39%
Gombe United 3+ goals
16%
Remo Stars 1+ goals
55%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
19%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)
69%
Remo Stars (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 58 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.28 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Gombe United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gombe United scores more
50%
level
28%
Remo Stars scores more
22%

Gombe United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Gombe United 0–0 Remo Stars

Gombe United and Remo Stars drew 0-0 in NPFL on April 2, 2024.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.