Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 0–4 Pogon Szczecin W

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Pogon Szczecin W

3/9/2025

Ekstraliga Women · Round 14Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W13%

×Draw18%

Pogon Szczecin W69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-Biala WExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.24

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

0.83

Pogon Szczecin W

2.24

Pogon Szczecin W creates 170% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

0.94

creates per match

2.66

1.81

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

0.94

Pogon Szczecin W

2.66

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

1.81

Pogon Szczecin W

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par

Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W ↓

Pogon Szczecin W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or draw

31%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or Pogon Szczecin W

82%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin W

87%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+

4%

Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals

56%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals

20%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals

5%

Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals

89%

Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals

65%

Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)

15%

Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Pogon Szczecin W away — creates 2.66, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 0.94 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.66 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more

13%

level

18%

Pogon Szczecin W scores more

69%

Pogon Szczecin W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff