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Pogon Szczecin W vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Pogon Szczecin W
Pogon Szczecin W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
8/24/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 3Stadion Floriana Krygiera boisko nr. 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogon Szczecin W65%
×Draw19%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin W
2.30
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.07

Pogon Szczecin W creates 115% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin W
2.88
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.21

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin W
0.94
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.73

finishing

Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin W ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin W or draw
84%
Pogon Szczecin W or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
81%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
35%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+
42%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals
90%
Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals
67%
Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals
40%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals
66%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals
29%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)
80%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.88 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.30

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 1.21 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pogon Szczecin W scores more
65%
level
19%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more
16%

Pogon Szczecin W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogon Szczecin W vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

Pogon Szczecin W beat Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 4-1 in Ekstraliga Women on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Floriana Krygiera boisko nr. 3 in Szczecin.