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Rekord Bielsko-Biala W vs Górnik Łęczna W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
9/22/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 6Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W18%
×Draw21%
Górnik Łęczna W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.06
Górnik Łęczna W
2.10

Górnik Łęczna W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
0.94
Górnik Łęczna W
2.39

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.81
Górnik Łęczna W
1.18

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W ↓

Górnik Łęczna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or draw
39%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or Górnik Łęczna W
79%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna W
82%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+
7%
Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals
65%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals
29%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals
9%
Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
88%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
62%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)
23%
Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Górnik Łęczna W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 0.94 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Górnik Łęczna W attack 2.39 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more
18%
level
21%
Górnik Łęczna W scores more
61%

Górnik Łęczna W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 0–0 Górnik Łęczna W

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W and Górnik Łęczna W drew 0-0 in Ekstraliga Women on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.