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Górnik Łęczna W vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
4/12/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 17Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Górnik Łęczna W53%
×Draw24%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna W
1.73
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.06

Górnik Łęczna W creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna W
1.72
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.21

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna W
0.91
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.73

finishing

Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna W ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna W or draw
77%
Górnik Łęczna W or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
76%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
47%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
29%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
82%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
25%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals
65%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals
29%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
70%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna W at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna W attack 1.72 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 1.21 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Górnik Łęczna W scores more
53%
level
24%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more
23%

Górnik Łęczna W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna W vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W beat Górnik Łęczna W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.