Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3–3 Raków Częstochowa II

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

3 – 3

Raków Częstochowa II

5/27/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała53%

×Draw22%

Raków Częstochowa II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.33

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.99

Raków Częstochowa II

1.33

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 50% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

2.28

creates per match

1.53

1.14

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.28

Raków Częstochowa II

1.53

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.14

Raków Częstochowa II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

74%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Raków Częstochowa II

78%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa II

47%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

31%

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

86%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

59%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

32%

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

74%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

38%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

67%

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

53%

level

22%

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

26%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff