Raków Częstochowa II 2–1 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Raków Częstochowa II

FT

2 – 1

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

3/9/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raków Częstochowa II37%

×Draw24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków Częstochowa IIExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.60

Raków Częstochowa II

1.55

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.62

creates per match

1.97

1.24

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa II

1.62

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.97

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa II

1.24

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa II ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa II or draw

61%

Raków Częstochowa II or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

76%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

63%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

18%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

79%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

46%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

20%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

80%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

47%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

49%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.62 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

37%

level

24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

39%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff