Rekord Bielsko-Biała 7–3 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

7 – 3

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

5/1/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała68%

×Draw17%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchPolonia-Stal Świdnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.21

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.69

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.21

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 122% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

2.28

creates per match

1.28

1.14

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.28

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.28

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.14

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

85%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

83%

Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

32%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

47%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

93%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

74%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

49%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

70%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

34%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

82%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.69

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

68%

level

17%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

15%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff