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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
0 – 3
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
9/19/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica22%
×Draw20%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.29
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.23

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.97

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.48

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
42%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
80%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
78%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
9%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
72%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
37%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
14%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
89%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
65%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
27%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
22%
level
20%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
58%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia-Stal Świdnica 0–3 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.