Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Pawłowice Śląskie

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

CANC

15:30

Pawłowice Śląskie

2/5/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała80%

×Draw11%

Pawłowice Śląskie10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchPawłowice Śląskie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.50

1.67

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

4.50

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.67

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 169% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

6.33

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.67

Pawłowice Śląskie

2.00

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.33

Pawłowice Śląskie

6.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

84%16%4.5

68%32%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

90%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Pawłowice Śląskie

89%

Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie

20%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

64%

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

99%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

93%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

79%

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

81%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

50%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

89%

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 2.00, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.67 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.50

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 2.00 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

80%

level

11%

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

10%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff