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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
8/12/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie36%
×Draw22%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.67
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.97

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.48

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
59%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
78%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
64%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
18%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
81%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
50%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
83%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
54%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
47%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
36%
level
22%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
41%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pawłowice Śląskie vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Pawłowice Śląskie 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.