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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Lechia Zielona Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
1 – 2
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Boisko piłkarskie LKS Wapienica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała50%
×Draw23%
Lechia Zielona Góra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.84
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.32

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 103 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.28
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.14
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.41

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
72%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Lechia Zielona Góra
77%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
50%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
27%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
84%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
55%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
28%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
73%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
38%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
64%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
50%
level
23%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
28%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1–2 Lechia Zielona Góra

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Boisko piłkarskie LKS Wapienica in Bielsko-Biała.