Lechia Zielona Góra 1–1 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Lechia Zielona Góra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

3/19/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra38%

×Draw24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia Zielona GóraExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.57

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.55

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 69 away

1.62

creates per match

1.97

1.18

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.62

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.97

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.18

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw

61%

Lechia Zielona Góra or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

76%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

62%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

18%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

79%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

46%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

20%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

79%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

46%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

49%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

38%

level

24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

39%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff