Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Goczałkowice Zdrój

Unknown 42', 2'

D. Mazurek 23'

D. Orlinski 83'

1/27/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała56%

×Draw22%

Goczałkowice Zdrój22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchGoczałkowice Zdrój

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.19

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.01

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.19

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

2.20

creates per match

1.18

1.20

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.20

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.18

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.20

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

78%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Goczałkowice Zdrój

78%

Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój

44%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

33%

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

87%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

59%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

32%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

70%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

33%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

72%

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.20 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.01

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.18 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

56%

level

22%

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

22%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

23'

D. Mazurek

42'

83'

D. Orlinski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff