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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
M. Nagrodzki 90'
K. Komandera 80'
10/15/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała52%
×Draw23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.82
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.18

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 54% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 102 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.28
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.14
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
75%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Goczałkowice Zdrój
77%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
48%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
29%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
84%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
54%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
27%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
69%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
33%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
68%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.82

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
52%
level
23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
25%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
K. Komandera
90'
M. Nagrodzki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Goczałkowice Zdrój

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 15, 2023.

Goals: K. Komandera (80'), M. Nagrodzki (90').

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.