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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
D. Swiderski 59'
5/19/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała56%
×Draw22%
Chrobry Głogów II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.88
Chrobry Głogów II
1.07

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 76% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.28
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.14
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
79%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Chrobry Głogów II
78%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
44%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
32%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
85%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
56%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
29%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
66%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
29%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
72%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
56%
level
22%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
21%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
D. Swiderski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1–0 Chrobry Głogów II

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Chrobry Głogów II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 19, 2023.

Goals: D. Swiderski (59').

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.