Chrobry Głogów II 1–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Chrobry Głogów II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

A. Krysik 90' (OG)

M. Wrobel 78', 65'

10/15/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II24%

×Draw20%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry Głogów IIExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.31

Chrobry Głogów II

1.48

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.31

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

1.47

creates per match

1.97

2.65

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.97

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II

2.65

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw

44%

Chrobry Głogów II or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

80%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

76%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

11%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

77%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

43%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

19%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

90%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

67%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

30%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

24%

level

20%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

56%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

M. Wrobel

78'

M. Wrobel

90'

A. KrysikOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff