Reims 1–3 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Reims

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Montpellier

F. Balogun 28'

E. Wahi 76', 54'

A. Nordin 59'

6/3/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 38Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Reims40%

×Draw27%

Montpellier33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.16

Reims

1.31

Montpellier

1.16

Reims creates 13% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 99 away

1.11

creates per match

1.30

1.02

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Reims

1.11

Montpellier

1.30

allows per match

Reims

1.02

Montpellier

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reims or draw

67%

Reims or Montpellier

73%

Draw or Montpellier

60%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

18%

Montpellier wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

73%

Reims 2+ goals

38%

Reims 3+ goals

14%

Montpellier 1+ goals

69%

Montpellier 2+ goals

32%

Montpellier 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

55%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.02 · 93 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.11 + Montpellier defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Montpellier attack 1.30 + Reims defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Reims scores more

40%

level

27%

Montpellier scores more

33%

Reims at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Savanier

Montpellier · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

28'

44'

54'

59'

64'

64'

S. Mavididi← F. Maouassa

66'

Arnaud Nordin

71'

M. Diakhon← A. Flips

76'

E. Wahi

77'

V. Atangana Edoa← C. Keita

77'

K. Doumbia← J. Cajuste

77'

M. Busi← T. Foket

81'

T. Tamas← T. Sainte-Luce

81'

V. Germain← E. Wahi

89'

K. Sierhuis← A. Matusiwa

90+2'

A. Gueguin← A. Nordin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsMontpellier

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots16

1.60Expected Goals (xG)2.31

4Corners7

16Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target8

5Off Target2

1Blocked6

6Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

412Total Passes449

336Accurate Passes363

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2