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Montpellier vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Montpellier
Montpellier
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reims
Reims
2/27/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier36%
×Draw26%
Reims38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montpellier
1.31
Reims
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Montpellier
1.59
Reims
1.52

allows per match

Montpellier
1.18
Reims
1.04

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw
62%
Montpellier or Reims
74%
Draw or Reims
64%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+
16%
Reims wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals
73%
Montpellier 2+ goals
38%
Montpellier 3+ goals
14%
Reims 1+ goals
74%
Reims 2+ goals
39%
Reims 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)
49%
Reims (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Reims attack 1.52 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Montpellier scores more
36%
level
26%
Reims scores more
38%

Reims at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
S. NgapandouetnbuMontpellierMontpellier · G
8.5

Match Events

36'
Nathanaël Mbuku
69'
T. Savanier← N. Mbuku
74'
J. Patrick← A. Tia
74'
T. Diarra← Y. Benhattab
74'
A. Bojang← M. Daramy
83'
K. Fayad← T. Chennahi
83'
N. El Hannach← T. Sainte-Luce
86'
A. Sishuba← N. Pays
86'
E. Molebe← Y. Issoufou
90'
Y. Fofana← Zabi

Possession

49%Montpellier

Shots

10Montpellier

Pass accuracy

50%Montpellier

Statistics

MontpellierReims
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots15
3Corners4
20Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots15
2On Target4
5Off Target7
3Blocked4
7Inside Box8
3Outside Box7
Passing
49%Possession51%
380Total Passes410
319Accurate Passes342
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Reims

Montpellier and Reims drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2026.

Reims controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.