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Reims vs Dunkerque — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Reims
Reims
FT
2 – 2
Dunkerque
Dunkerque
7/18/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Ferdi Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Reims58%
×Draw21%
Dunkerque21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims
2.08
Dunkerque
1.16

Reims creates 79% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Reims
2.82
Dunkerque
1.67

allows per match

Reims
0.64
Dunkerque
1.33

finishing

Reims+0.00on par
Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Reims or draw
79%
Reims or Dunkerque
79%
Draw or Dunkerque
42%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+
35%
Dunkerque wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals
87%
Reims 2+ goals
61%
Reims 3+ goals
34%
Dunkerque 1+ goals
69%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
32%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)
74%
Dunkerque (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 2.82 + Dunkerque defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dunkerque attack 1.67 + Reims defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Reims scores more
58%
level
21%
Dunkerque scores more
21%

Reims at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Reims 2–2 Dunkerque

Reims and Dunkerque drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Ferdi Petit in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage.