Dunkerque 1–1 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dunkerque

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Reims

T. Robinet 40'

K. Nakamura 90'

3/9/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Marcel Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunkerque31%

×Draw28%

Reims42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.31

Dunkerque

1.08

Reims

1.31

Reims creates 21% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 27 away

1.13

creates per match

1.52

1.11

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Reims

1.52

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Reims

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

58%

Dunkerque or Reims

72%

Draw or Reims

69%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

12%

Reims wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

66%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

29%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

10%

Reims 1+ goals

73%

Reims 2+ goals

38%

Reims 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

42%

Reims (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Reims attack 1.52 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dunkerque scores more

31%

level

28%

Reims scores more

42%

Reims at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Nakamura

Reims · M

7.7

Match Events

40'

T. Robinet

46'

H. Ibrahim← M. Daramy

47'

Theo Leoni

51'

N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon

58'

J. Patrick← Y. Benhattab

59'

M. Gbane← Zabi

59'

H. Sekine← A. Tia

77'

L. Doucet← A. Sekongo

77'

Z. Seha← M. Bokele Mputu

86'

87'

90+3'

90'

90+4'

90'

K. Nakamura↳ S. Akieme

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DunkerqueReims

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots13

4Corners4

12Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target3

2Off Target8

1Blocked2

4Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

412Total Passes468

334Accurate Passes396

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5