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Reims vs Boulogne — Ligue 2 2018

Reims
Reims
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Boulogne
Boulogne
G. Courtet 89', 84'
Odaïr Fortes 4'
Y. Chadili 69'
A. Allart 64'
5/1/2012Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade Auguste-Delaune II (Reims)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Reims50%
×Draw26%
Boulogne24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims
1.51
Boulogne
0.95

Reims creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

Reims
1.73
Boulogne
1.00

allows per match

Reims
0.90
Boulogne
1.29

finishing

Reims+0.00on par
Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Boulogne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Reims or draw
76%
Reims or Boulogne
74%
Draw or Boulogne
50%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+
26%
Boulogne wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals
78%
Reims 2+ goals
44%
Reims 3+ goals
19%
Boulogne 1+ goals
61%
Boulogne 2+ goals
25%
Boulogne 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)
68%
Boulogne (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.73 + Boulogne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.51

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Reims defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Reims scores more
50%
level
26%
Boulogne scores more
24%

Reims at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Odaïr Fortes
64'
A. Allart
69'
Y. Chadili
84'
G. Courtet
89'
G. Courtet

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reims vs Boulogne

Reims beat Boulogne 3-2 in Ligue 2 on May 1, 2012.

Goals: Odaïr Fortes (4'), A. Allart (64'), Y. Chadili (69'), G. Courtet (84', 89').

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II (Reims).