Boulogne 2–6 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Boulogne

FT

2 – 6

HT: 2 – 4

Reims

J. Boyer 34'

A. Platret 10'

T. Diarra 90'

H. Ibrahim 47', 18'

K. Nakamura 43', 27' (pen)

T. Teuma 32'

10/28/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boulogne27%

×Draw26%

Reims47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoulogneExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.53

Boulogne

1.09

Reims

1.53

Reims creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.00

creates per match

1.54

1.52

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Boulogne

1.00

Reims

1.54

allows per match

Boulogne

1.52

Reims

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par

Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw

53%

Boulogne or Reims

74%

Draw or Reims

73%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+

10%

Reims wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals

66%

Boulogne 2+ goals

30%

Boulogne 3+ goals

10%

Reims 1+ goals

78%

Reims 2+ goals

45%

Reims 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)

36%

Reims (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Reims away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Reims defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Reims attack 1.54 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Boulogne scores more

27%

level

26%

Reims scores more

47%

Reims at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

85

H. Ibrahim

Reims · F

8.6

Match Events

6'

Hiroki Sekine

10'

A. Platret↳ N. Fatar

18'

H. Ibrahim↳ T. Diarra

19'

Julien Boyer

27'

K. NakamuraPenalty

32'

T. Teuma↳ S. Akieme

34'

J. Boyer↳ S. Duflos

43'

K. Nakamura↳ H. Ibrahim

46'

M. Busi← H. Sekine

47'

H. Ibrahim

52'

Aurelien Platret

58'

N. Bassette← H. Ibrahim

58'

A. Salama← K. Nakamura

66'

67'

67'

74'

78'

79'

A. El Farissi← E. Mpembele Boula

83'

Y. Demoncy← A. Tia

90'

T. Diarra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoulogneReims

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots15

1Corners3

16Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots15

2On Target7

5Off Target3

3Blocked5

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

389Total Passes562

317Accurate Passes482

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3