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Naftëtari Kuçovë vs Butrinti Sarandë — League #513 2026

Naftëtari Kuçovë
Naftëtari Kuçovë
FT
3 – 3
Butrinti Sarandë
Butrinti Sarandë
9/30/2018League #513League #513 · Group B - 3Stadiumi Bashkim Sulejmani (Kuçovë)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Naftëtari Kuçovë48%
×Draw24%
Butrinti Sarandë28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftëtari Kuçovë
1.68
Butrinti Sarandë
1.24

Naftëtari Kuçovë creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Naftëtari Kuçovë
2.10
Butrinti Sarandë
1.38

allows per match

Naftëtari Kuçovë
1.10
Butrinti Sarandë
1.25

finishing

Naftëtari Kuçovë+0.00on par
Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftëtari Kuçovë ↓

Butrinti Sarandë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Naftëtari Kuçovë or draw
72%
Naftëtari Kuçovë or Butrinti Sarandë
76%
Draw or Butrinti Sarandë
52%

Winning margin

Naftëtari Kuçovë wins by 2+
25%
Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naftëtari Kuçovë 1+ goals
81%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 2+ goals
50%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 3+ goals
24%
Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals
71%
Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals
35%
Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Naftëtari Kuçovë (draw refunded)
63%
Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftëtari Kuçovë at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Butrinti Sarandë away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftëtari Kuçovë attack 2.10 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.68

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.38 + Naftëtari Kuçovë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naftëtari Kuçovë scores more
48%
level
24%
Butrinti Sarandë scores more
28%

Naftëtari Kuçovë at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naftëtari Kuçovë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #513: Naftëtari Kuçovë 3–3 Butrinti Sarandë

Naftëtari Kuçovë and Butrinti Sarandë drew 3-3 in League #513 on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Stadiumi Bashkim Sulejmani (Kuçovë).