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Butrinti Sarandë vs Naftëtari Kuçovë — League #513 2026

Butrinti Sarandë
Butrinti Sarandë
FT
1 – 0
Naftëtari Kuçovë
Naftëtari Kuçovë
3/8/2020League #513League #513 · Group B - 17Stadiumi Andon Lapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Butrinti Sarandë62%
×Draw26%
Naftëtari Kuçovë12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Butrinti Sarandë
1.50
Naftëtari Kuçovë
0.50

Butrinti Sarandë creates 200% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Butrinti Sarandë
1.25
Naftëtari Kuçovë
0.50

allows per match

Butrinti Sarandë
0.50
Naftëtari Kuçovë
1.75

finishing

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par
Naftëtari Kuçovë+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Butrinti Sarandë ↓

Naftëtari Kuçovë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Butrinti Sarandë or draw
88%
Butrinti Sarandë or Naftëtari Kuçovë
74%
Draw or Naftëtari Kuçovë
38%

Winning margin

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+
33%
Naftëtari Kuçovë wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals
78%
Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals
44%
Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals
19%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 1+ goals
39%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 2+ goals
9%
Naftëtari Kuçovë 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)
84%
Naftëtari Kuçovë (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Butrinti Sarandë at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Naftëtari Kuçovë away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.25 + Naftëtari Kuçovë defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Naftëtari Kuçovë attack 0.50 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Butrinti Sarandë scores more
62%
level
26%
Naftëtari Kuçovë scores more
12%

Butrinti Sarandë at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #513: Butrinti Sarandë 1–0 Naftëtari Kuçovë

Butrinti Sarandë beat Naftëtari Kuçovë 1-0 in League #513 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Andon Lapa in Sarandë.