Naftëtari Kuçovë 2–2 Butrinti Sarandë

Naftëtari Kuçovë

FT

2 – 2

Butrinti Sarandë

10/20/2019

League #513 · Group B - 4Stadiumi Bashkim Sulejmani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Naftëtari Kuçovë37%

×Draw24%

Butrinti Sarandë39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naftëtari KuçovëExpected goals in this matchButrinti Sarandë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.56

Naftëtari Kuçovë

1.50

Butrinti Sarandë

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

1.38

1.75

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Naftëtari Kuçovë

1.75

Butrinti Sarandë

1.38

allows per match

Naftëtari Kuçovë

1.75

Butrinti Sarandë

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naftëtari Kuçovë+0.00on par

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftëtari Kuçovë ↓

Butrinti Sarandë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Naftëtari Kuçovë or draw

61%

Naftëtari Kuçovë or Butrinti Sarandë

76%

Draw or Butrinti Sarandë

63%

Winning margin

Naftëtari Kuçovë wins by 2+

17%

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Naftëtari Kuçovë 1+ goals

78%

Naftëtari Kuçovë 2+ goals

44%

Naftëtari Kuçovë 3+ goals

19%

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals

79%

Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals

46%

Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Naftëtari Kuçovë (draw refunded)

48%

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftëtari Kuçovë at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Butrinti Sarandë away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftëtari Kuçovë attack 1.75 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.38 + Naftëtari Kuçovë defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naftëtari Kuçovë scores more

37%

level

24%

Butrinti Sarandë scores more

39%

Butrinti Sarandë at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff