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Reggina vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

Reggina
Reggina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pisa
Pisa
E. Gliozzi 70' (pen)
M. Gargiulo 63'
2/11/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 24Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina38%
×Draw27%
Pisa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggina
1.27
Pisa
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 116 away

creates per match

Reggina
1.18
Pisa
1.21

allows per match

Reggina
1.19
Pisa
1.36

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par
Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Pisa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Reggina or draw
65%
Reggina or Pisa
73%
Draw or Pisa
62%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+
17%
Pisa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals
72%
Reggina 2+ goals
36%
Reggina 3+ goals
14%
Pisa 1+ goals
70%
Pisa 2+ goals
34%
Pisa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)
52%
Pisa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Pisa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pisa attack 1.21 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggina scores more
38%
level
27%
Pisa scores more
35%

Reggina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reggina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
M. GargiuloPisaPisa · M
7.9

Match Events

1'
Stefano Moreo
34'
Pietro Beruatto
46'
I. Touré← Tomás Esteves
51'
D. Bouah← R. Gagliolo
52'
Mario Gargiulo
61'
L. Canotto← R. Rivas
61'
G. Gori← D. Strelec
61'
E. Gliozzi← S. Moreo
62'
G. Sibilli← M. Tramoni
63'
M. Gargiulo
70'
E. GliozziPenalty
73'
Devid Eugene Bouah
74'
E. Cicerelli← Hernani
80'
A. De Vitis← M. Gargiulo
90+1'
Devid Eugene Bouah
90+1'
Devid Eugene Bouah
90'
A. Rus← O. Moruțan

Possession

52%Reggina

Shots

14Reggina

Pass accuracy

52%Reggina

Statistics

RegginaPisa
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots5
11Corners2
17Fouls24
Shots
14Total Shots5
2On Target2
6Off Target3
6Blocked0
8Inside Box4
6Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
331Total Passes318
237Accurate Passes213
72%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls24
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Reggina vs Pisa

Pisa beat Reggina 2-0 in Serie B on February 11, 2023.

Goals: M. Gargiulo (63'), E. Gliozzi (70' pen).

Reggina controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Reggio Calabria.