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Pisa vs Reggina — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reggina
Reggina
L. Canotto 28'
9/10/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 5Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pisa46%
×Draw27%
Reggina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.36
Reggina
0.97

Pisa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Reggina
0.95

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Reggina
1.24

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Reggina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Reggina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
73%
Pisa or Reggina
73%
Draw or Reggina
54%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
22%
Reggina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
74%
Pisa 2+ goals
39%
Pisa 3+ goals
16%
Reggina 1+ goals
62%
Reggina 2+ goals
25%
Reggina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
63%
Reggina (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Reggina away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Reggina defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reggina attack 0.95 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pisa scores more
46%
level
27%
Reggina scores more
27%

Pisa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
M. CamporeseRegginaReggina · D
7.7

Match Events

28'
L. Canotto↳ J. Ménez
46'
G. Masucci← A. Rus
48'
Gaetano MasucciGoal cancelled
56'
Gaetano Masucci
66'
M. Cissé← G. Masucci
66'
R. Jureškin← P. Beruatto
69'
E. Cicerelli← R. Rivas
69'
F. Giraudo← G. Di Chiara
69'
G. Gori← J. Ménez
70'
Niccolò Pierozzi
74'
Simone Colombi
75'
D. Liotti← Ž. Majer
77'
G. Mastinu← I. Touré
79'
Federico Barba
81'
Giuseppe Mastinu
83'
F. Ricci← L. Canotto
88'
L. Tramoni← O. Moruțan
90+4'
Emanuele CicerelliPenalty cancelled

Possession

50%Pisa

Shots

12Pisa

Pass accuracy

51%Pisa

Statistics

PisaReggina
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots8
7Corners2
17Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target3
7Off Target2
3Blocked3
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
389Total Passes393
294Accurate Passes290
76%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Serie B: Pisa 0–1 Reggina

Reggina beat Pisa 1-0 in Serie B on September 10, 2022.

Goals: L. Canotto (28').

Pisa controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.