Reggina 2–1 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Modena

D. Strelec 59'

N. Pierozzi 26'

L. Tremolada 39'

2/25/2023

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina39%

×Draw27%

Modena33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RegginaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

Reggina

1.28

Modena

1.16

Reggina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.18

creates per match

1.12

1.19

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Reggina

1.18

Modena

1.12

allows per match

Reggina

1.19

Modena

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par

Modena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reggina or draw

67%

Reggina or Modena

73%

Draw or Modena

61%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+

17%

Modena wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals

72%

Reggina 2+ goals

37%

Reggina 3+ goals

14%

Modena 1+ goals

69%

Modena 2+ goals

32%

Modena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)

54%

Modena (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Modena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Modena defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Modena attack 1.12 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reggina scores more

39%

level

27%

Modena scores more

33%

Reggina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reggina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Ž. Majer

Reggina · M

7.5

Match Events

26'

N. Pierozzi

35'

Edoardo Duca

39'

L. Tremolada↳ D. Falcinelli

51'

59'

64'

66'

66'

73'

R. Giovannini← L. Tremolada

73'

N. Mosti← E. Duca

73'

N. Bonfanti← D. Falcinelli

74'

E. Cicerelli← J. Ménez

87'

S. Panada← F. Gerli

88'

Fabio Ponsi

88'

F. Renzetti← F. Ponsi

90+6'

Hernani Jr.

90'

Mauro Coppolaro

90+4'

D. Liotti← G. Di Chiara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RegginaModena

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots12

4Corners9

12Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked4

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

341Total Passes379

254Accurate Passes281

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1