Modena 1–0 Reggina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reggina

D. Diaw 65'

10/1/2022

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Modena43%

×Draw28%

Reggina29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchReggina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Modena

1.27

Reggina

1.00

Modena creates 27% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 58 away

1.30

creates per match

0.95

1.05

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Modena

1.30

Reggina

0.95

allows per match

Modena

1.05

Reggina

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modena+0.00on par

Reggina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Reggina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Modena or draw

71%

Modena or Reggina

72%

Draw or Reggina

57%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

19%

Reggina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

72%

Modena 2+ goals

36%

Modena 3+ goals

14%

Reggina 1+ goals

63%

Reggina 2+ goals

26%

Reggina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

59%

Reggina (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Reggina away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Reggina defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Reggina attack 0.95 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Modena scores more

43%

level

28%

Reggina scores more

29%

Modena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Gagno

Modena · G

7.6

Match Events

32'

Antonio Pergreffi

33'

Niccolò Pierozzi

46'

G. Loiacono← N. Pierozzi

55'

R. Giovannini← D. Falcinelli

55'

D. Marsura← L. Tremolada

56'

58'

60'

62'

62'

63'

65'

66'

75'

79'

80'

S. Panada← M. Coppolaro

80'

F. Santander← R. Gagliolo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaReggina

Overview

40%Possession60%

6Total Shots16

0Corners6

20Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots16

3On Target4

2Off Target8

1Blocked4

3Inside Box8

3Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

302Total Passes454

234Accurate Passes370

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides6

Match Recap: Modena vs Reggina

Modena beat Reggina 1-0 in Serie B on October 1, 2022.

Goals: D. Diaw (65').

Reggina controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.

Modena vs Reggina — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Modena vs Reggina