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Reggina vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Reggina
Reggina
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Frosinone
Frosinone
P. Szymiński 68'
R. Insigne 50'
S. Mulattieri 34'
12/8/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 16Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina34%
×Draw28%
Frosinone37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggina
1.13
Frosinone
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 117 away

creates per match

Reggina
1.18
Frosinone
1.19

allows per match

Reggina
1.19
Frosinone
1.08

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par
Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reggina or draw
63%
Reggina or Frosinone
72%
Draw or Frosinone
66%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+
14%
Frosinone wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals
68%
Reggina 2+ goals
31%
Reggina 3+ goals
11%
Frosinone 1+ goals
70%
Frosinone 2+ goals
33%
Frosinone 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)
48%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reggina scores more
34%
level
28%
Frosinone scores more
37%

Frosinone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94
R. InsigneFrosinoneFrosinone · F
7.9

Match Events

30'
Jérémy Ménez
34'
S. Mulattieri
43'
Roberto Insigne
50'
R. Insigne↳ L. Garritano
56'
G. Gori← Hernani
56'
E. Cicerelli← R. Rivas
65'
L. Crisetig← G. Di Chiara
65'
F. Ricci← L. Canotto
68'
P. Szymiński↳ L. Garritano
70'
Stefano Turati
71'
D. Liotti← J. Ménez
74'
R. Ciervo← R. Insigne
74'
G. Caso← L. Garritano
75'
G. Borrelli← S. Mulattieri
84'
Daniele LiottiGoal cancelled
86'
K. Lulić← M. Rohdén
87'
Gennaro Borrelli

Possession

52%Reggina

Shots

11Reggina

Pass accuracy

52%Reggina

Statistics

RegginaFrosinone
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots15
6Corners6
16Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots15
0On Target7
7Off Target4
4Blocked4
5Inside Box7
6Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
414Total Passes381
324Accurate Passes279
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls18
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Reggina vs Frosinone

Frosinone beat Reggina 3-0 in Serie B on December 8, 2022.

Goals: S. Mulattieri (34'), R. Insigne (50'), P. Szymiński (68').

Reggina controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Reggio Calabria.