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Reggina vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Reggina
Reggina
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Frosinone
Frosinone
A. Novakovich 78', 38', 28'
C. Ciano 76'
5/10/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 38Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina34%
×Draw28%
Frosinone37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggina
1.13
Frosinone
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 117 away

creates per match

Reggina
1.18
Frosinone
1.19

allows per match

Reggina
1.19
Frosinone
1.08

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par
Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reggina or draw
63%
Reggina or Frosinone
72%
Draw or Frosinone
66%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+
14%
Frosinone wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals
68%
Reggina 2+ goals
31%
Reggina 3+ goals
11%
Frosinone 1+ goals
70%
Frosinone 2+ goals
33%
Frosinone 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)
48%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reggina scores more
34%
level
28%
Frosinone scores more
37%

Frosinone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
A. NovakovichFrosinoneFrosinone · F
9.0

Match Events

17'
Marco Carraro
28'
A. Novakovich↳ P. Szymiński
32'
Enrico Del Prato
38'
A. Novakovich
46'
N. Bellomo← N. Bianchi
46'
G. Denis← A. Montalto
58'
D. Liotti← O. Okwonkwo
62'
Mirko Gori
69'
M. Rohdén← D. Boloca
69'
A. Tribuzzi← E. Brignola
76'
C. Ciano↳ A. Novakovich
78'
E. Petrelli← G. Di Chiara
78'
A. Novakovich
79'
L. Chierico← L. Crisetig
83'
V. Millico← M. Carraro
83'
L. Vitale← C. Ciano
90'
P. Luciani← A. Novakovich

Possession

59%Reggina

Shots

11Reggina

Pass accuracy

53%Reggina

Statistics

RegginaFrosinone
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots20
8Corners3
17Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots20
2On Target9
8Off Target6
1Blocked5
6Inside Box15
5Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
453Total Passes329
366Accurate Passes233
81%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Reggina vs Frosinone

Frosinone beat Reggina 4-0 in Serie B on May 10, 2021.

Goals: A. Novakovich (28', 38', 78'), C. Ciano (76').

Reggina controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Reggio Calabria.