Reggiana 2–1 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Venezia

S. Mazzocchi 66'

I. Radrezza 11'

F. Forte 19'

11/8/2020

Serie B · Round 7MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Reggiana20%

×Draw24%

Venezia55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.67

Reggiana

0.91

Venezia

1.67

Venezia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.95

creates per match

2.01

1.32

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Reggiana

0.95

Venezia

2.01

allows per match

Reggiana

1.32

Venezia

0.87

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Reggiana-0.22scores less

Venezia-0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

45%

Reggiana or Venezia

76%

Draw or Venezia

80%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

7%

Venezia wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

60%

Reggiana 2+ goals

23%

Reggiana 3+ goals

6%

Venezia 1+ goals

81%

Venezia 2+ goals

50%

Venezia 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

27%

Venezia (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Venezia away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.87 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 0.95 + Venezia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Venezia attack 2.01 + Reggiana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Reggiana scores more

20%

level

24%

Venezia scores more

55%

Venezia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

I. Radrezza

Reggiana · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

Simone Muratore

11'

I. Radrezza↳ G. Lunetta

19'

F. Forte↳ M. Aramu

28'

Antonio Junior Vacca

46'

I. Varone← S. Muratore

53'

D. Črnigoj← A. Vacca

53'

P. Mazzocchi← H. St Clair

64'

B. Bjarkason← G. Felicioli

66'

S. Mazzocchi↳ G. Lunetta

67'

Simone Mazzocchi

71'

L. Zamparo← S. Mazzocchi

71'

N. Kirwan← G. Lunetta

72'

R. Bocalon← D. Johnsen

72'

F. Di Mariano← M. Aramu

82'

S. Pezzella← F. Rossi

87'

Michele Cerofolini

90+3'

B. Gyamfi← I. Radrezza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReggianaVenezia

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots24

1Corners11

20Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots24

4On Target7

7Off Target6

1Blocked11

7Inside Box14

5Outside Box10

Passing

56%Possession44%

462Total Passes328

393Accurate Passes264

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1