Reggiana 0–1 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pescara

G. Scognamiglio 86'

1/4/2021

Serie B · Round 17MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Reggiana43%

×Draw27%

Pescara30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.10

Reggiana

1.37

Pescara

1.10

Reggiana creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 72 away

1.03

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Reggiana

1.03

Pescara

0.96

allows per match

Reggiana

1.24

Pescara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

70%

Reggiana or Pescara

73%

Draw or Pescara

57%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

20%

Pescara wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

75%

Reggiana 2+ goals

40%

Reggiana 3+ goals

16%

Pescara 1+ goals

67%

Pescara 2+ goals

30%

Pescara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

59%

Pescara (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.37

Pescara attack 0.96 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reggiana scores more

43%

level

27%

Pescara scores more

30%

Reggiana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

I. Radrezza

Reggiana · F

8.3

Match Events

19'

Raoul Bellanova

32'

Massimiliano Busellato

42'

Raoul Bellanova

42'

Raoul Bellanova

46'

N. Cambiaghi← A. Ajeti

46'

S. Omeonga← A. Balzano

46'

Rodrigo Guth← C. Galano

54'

Gabriel Lunetta

55'

L. Fernandes← M. Busellato

62'

Gennaro Scognamiglio

67'

D. Voltan← G. Lunetta

68'

Luca Zamparo

75'

Damir Ceter

77'

M. Nzita← E. Masciangelo

80'

S. Pezzella← S. Muratore

80'

M. Marchi← L. Zamparo

86'

G. Scognamiglio↳ M. Valdifiori

87'

G. Zampano← L. Libutti

88'

L. Crecco← M. Valdifiori

89'

Gennaro Scognamiglio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReggianaPescara

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots8

4Corners2

12Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots8

2On Target4

8Off Target3

5Blocked1

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

543Total Passes266

470Accurate Passes197

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

1Offsides1