Pescara 2–1 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Reggiana

G. Olzer 61'

T. Corazza 11'

M. Rover 15'

12/20/2025

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Pescara35%

×Draw25%

Reggiana41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.53

Pescara

1.40

Reggiana

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.49

creates per match

1.35

1.71

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Pescara

1.49

Reggiana

1.35

allows per match

Pescara

1.71

Reggiana

1.31

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara-0.11scores less

Reggiana-0.85scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

59%

Pescara or Reggiana

75%

Draw or Reggiana

65%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

16%

Reggiana wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

75%

Pescara 2+ goals

41%

Pescara 3+ goals

17%

Reggiana 1+ goals

78%

Reggiana 2+ goals

45%

Reggiana 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

46%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.71 · 13 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.31 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.49 + Reggiana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Reggiana attack 1.35 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pescara scores more

35%

level

25%

Reggiana scores more

41%

Reggiana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Corazza

Pescara · M

8.3

Match Events

2'

4'

11'

15'

45+2'

48'

54'

61'

62'

E. Tavsan← F. Vallarelli

73'

M. Dagasso← G. Olzer

76'

L. Mendicino← M. Bertagnoli

77'

F. Caligara← N. Squizzato

77'

M. Sampirisi← M. Rover

82'

M. Lambourde← A. Bozzolan

83'

L. Sgarbi← G. Letizia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraReggiana

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots8

2.23Expected Goals (xG)0.69

8Corners5

14Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots8

10On Target4

5Off Target2

4Blocked2

11Inside Box8

8Outside Box0

Passing

56%Possession44%

349Total Passes285

269Accurate Passes220

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3