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Reggiana vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Monza
Monza
3/17/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 31MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Reggiana31%
×Draw28%
Monza41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.06
Monza
1.27

Monza creates 20% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 61 away

creates per match

Reggiana
1.03
Monza
1.31

allows per match

Reggiana
1.24
Monza
1.10

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par
Monza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
59%
Reggiana or Monza
72%
Draw or Monza
69%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
12%
Monza wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
65%
Reggiana 2+ goals
29%
Reggiana 3+ goals
9%
Monza 1+ goals
72%
Monza 2+ goals
36%
Monza 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
43%
Monza (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Monza away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Monza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Monza attack 1.31 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reggiana scores more
31%
level
28%
Monza scores more
41%

Monza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
L. RavanelliMonzaMonza · D
8.3

Match Events

58'
Tobías Reinhart
64'
A. Petagna← D. Mota
65'
G. Caso← Hernani
65'
A. Alvarez← P. Cutrone
75'
K. Bozhanaj← N. Girma
75'
M. Bertagnoli← T. Reinhart
82'
S. Bonetti← M. Rover
82'
A. Colpani← P. Azzi
83'
L. Mendicino← M. Portanova

Possession

32%Reggiana

Shots

10Reggiana

Pass accuracy

47%Reggiana

Statistics

ReggianaMonza
Overview
32%Possession68%
10Total Shots19
0.50Expected Goals (xG)1.19
3Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots19
0On Target6
5Off Target7
5Blocked6
4Inside Box12
6Outside Box7
Passing
32%Possession68%
318Total Passes663
250Accurate Passes589
79%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Reggiana vs Monza

Reggiana and Monza drew 0-0 in Serie B on March 17, 2026.

Monza controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.