Monza 2–0 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Monza

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Reggiana

A. Colpani 84'

Carlos Augusto 12'

3/16/2021

Serie B · Round 29U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Monza56%

×Draw25%

Reggiana19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonzaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.83

Monza

1.62

Reggiana

0.83

Monza creates 95% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

1.71

creates per match

0.91

0.76

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Monza

1.71

Reggiana

0.91

allows per match

Monza

0.76

Reggiana

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza+0.00on par

Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Monza or draw

81%

Monza or Reggiana

75%

Draw or Reggiana

44%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+

30%

Reggiana wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals

80%

Monza 2+ goals

48%

Monza 3+ goals

22%

Reggiana 1+ goals

56%

Reggiana 2+ goals

20%

Reggiana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)

75%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.71 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Monza defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Monza scores more

56%

level

25%

Reggiana scores more

19%

Monza at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Carlos Augusto

Monza · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

Carlos Augusto

46'

A. Kargbo← K. Laribi

54'

Ivan Varone

58'

A. Anastasio← Carlos Augusto

78'

S. Mazzocchi← I. Varone

78'

N. Cambiaghi← G. Lunetta

81'

M. Marić← Dany Mota

81'

A. Colpani← M. Scozzarella

82'

M. Sampirisi← G. Donati

82'

A. Costa← E. Yao

84'

A. Colpani↳ A. D'Errico

85'

F. Ricci← A. DErrico

90+1'

L. Zamparo← M. Ardemagni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonzaReggiana

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots5

4Corners0

21Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots5

3On Target0

10Off Target4

3Blocked1

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

473Total Passes434

400Accurate Passes353

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1