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Reggiana vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mantova
Mantova
Charlys 9'
2/10/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 24MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Reggiana38%
×Draw27%
Mantova35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.32
Mantova
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Reggiana
0.94
Mantova
1.26

allows per match

Reggiana
1.24
Mantova
1.70

finishing

Reggiana-0.06on par
Mantova-0.01on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Mantova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
65%
Reggiana or Mantova
73%
Draw or Mantova
62%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
17%
Mantova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
73%
Reggiana 2+ goals
38%
Reggiana 3+ goals
15%
Mantova 1+ goals
71%
Mantova 2+ goals
36%
Mantova 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
52%
Mantova (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 8 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 0.94 + Mantova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mantova attack 1.26 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggiana scores more
38%
level
27%
Mantova scores more
35%

Reggiana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
CharlysReggianaReggiana · M
8.3

Match Events

9'
Charlys↳ S. Bonetti
28'
Andrija Novakovich
39'
Natan Girma
46'
L. Mancuso← D. Mensah
46'
T. Marras← D. Bragantini
63'
F. Ruocco← N. Buso
63'
F. Benaissa-Yahia← T. Goncalves
65'
Andrea Meroni
70'
C. Gondo← N. Girma
70'
L. Mendicino← T. Reinhart
77'
N. Muci← A. Meroni
82'
Tommaso MarrasGoal cancelled
88'
Rachid Kouda
90+6'
Paolo Rozzio
90+2'
Andrea Bozzolan
90+6'
Stefano Cella
90'
A. Bozzolan← A. Tripaldelli
90+1'
F. Vallarelli← L. Belardinelli
90'
T. Fumagalli← A. Novakovich

Possession

30%Reggiana

Shots

11Reggiana

Pass accuracy

44%Reggiana

Statistics

ReggianaMantova
Overview
30%Possession70%
11Total Shots11
0.75Expected Goals (xG)0.55
5Corners3
16Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots11
3On Target1
4Off Target5
4Blocked5
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box6
Passing
30%Possession70%
236Total Passes571
158Accurate Passes497
67%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.18Goals Prevented0.18
Discipline
16Fouls12
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Serie B: Reggiana 1–0 Mantova

Reggiana beat Mantova 1-0 in Serie B on February 10, 2026.

Goals: Charlys (9').

Mantova controlled possession (70%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.