Mantova 0–1 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reggiana

T. Reinhart 53'

12/8/2025

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mantova42%

×Draw27%

Reggiana32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Mantova

1.38

Reggiana

1.17

Mantova creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.48

creates per match

1.23

1.11

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Mantova

1.48

Reggiana

1.23

allows per match

Mantova

1.11

Reggiana

1.28

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.09on par

Reggiana-0.66scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

68%

Mantova or Reggiana

73%

Draw or Reggiana

58%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

19%

Reggiana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

75%

Mantova 2+ goals

40%

Mantova 3+ goals

16%

Reggiana 1+ goals

69%

Reggiana 2+ goals

33%

Reggiana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

57%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 14 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.28 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.48 + Reggiana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Reggiana attack 1.23 + Mantova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mantova scores more

42%

level

27%

Reggiana scores more

32%

Mantova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Reinhart

Reggiana · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

Cedric GondoGoal cancelled

25'

Andrea Bozzolan

40'

Stefano Cella

46'

E. Tavsan← N. Girma

53'

T. Reinhart↳ M. Marras

57'

F. Paoletti← D. Wieser

57'

T. Marras← F. Galuppini

60'

Tobías Reinhart

61'

L. Libutti← M. Marras

70'

C. Falletti← F. Artioli

70'

M. Caprini← F. Ruocco

75'

Nicholas Bonfanti

76'

D. Mensah← N. Bonfanti

76'

A. Novakovich← C. Gondo

82'

S. Bonetti← A. Bozzolan

82'

M. Bertagnoli← T. Reinhart

83'

Simone Bonetti

89'

Charlys

89'

CharlysCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaReggiana

Overview

76%Possession24%

18Total Shots8

1.12Expected Goals (xG)0.52

10Corners3

12Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots8

5On Target3

2Off Target4

11Blocked1

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

76%Possession24%

678Total Passes211

619Accurate Passes166

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Serie B: Mantova 0–1 Reggiana

Reggiana beat Mantova 1-0 in Serie B on December 8, 2025.

Goals: T. Reinhart (53').

Mantova controlled possession (76%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Reggiana — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 0–1 Reggiana