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Reggiana vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Frosinone
Frosinone
S. Mazzocchi 71'
M. Rohdén 75'
P. Parzyszek 60'
12/15/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 12MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Reggiana34%
×Draw25%
Frosinone41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.34
Frosinone
1.50

Frosinone creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Reggiana
0.95
Frosinone
1.69

allows per match

Reggiana
1.32
Frosinone
1.74

finishing

Reggiana-0.22scores less
Frosinone+0.22scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
59%
Reggiana or Frosinone
75%
Draw or Frosinone
66%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
15%
Frosinone wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
74%
Reggiana 2+ goals
39%
Reggiana 3+ goals
15%
Frosinone 1+ goals
78%
Frosinone 2+ goals
44%
Frosinone 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
45%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.74 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 0.95 + Frosinone defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Frosinone attack 1.69 + Reggiana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reggiana scores more
34%
level
25%
Frosinone scores more
41%

Frosinone at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. RohdénFrosinoneFrosinone · M
8.5

Match Events

42'
Lorenzo Libutti
58'
I. Radrezza← S. Pezzella
58'
S. Mazzocchi← N. Cambiaghi
60'
P. Parzyszek↳ M. Rohdén
64'
D. Boloca← A. Tribuzzi
71'
S. Mazzocchi
73'
M. Marchi← L. Zamparo
75'
M. Rohdén↳ P. Parzyszek
77'
F. Zampano← A. Beghetto
81'
S. Muratore← I. Varone
82'
D. Voltan← G. Zampano
82'
R. Maiello← M. Rohdén
87'
Daniel Boloca

Possession

51%Reggiana

Shots

7Reggiana

Pass accuracy

51%Reggiana

Statistics

ReggianaFrosinone
Overview
51%Possession49%
7Total Shots11
2Corners2
16Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots11
4On Target4
3Off Target3
0Blocked4
4Inside Box7
3Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
448Total Passes420
358Accurate Passes327
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
6Offsides0

Match Recap: Reggiana vs Frosinone

Frosinone beat Reggiana 2-1 in Serie B on December 15, 2020.

Goals: P. Parzyszek (60'), S. Mazzocchi (71'), M. Rohdén (75').

Reggiana controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio nell'Emilia.