Frosinone 1–1 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Reggiana

I. Koutsoupias 90+2'

A. Sersanti 42'

2/16/2025

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Frosinone51%

×Draw26%

Reggiana23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.94

Frosinone

1.54

Reggiana

0.94

Frosinone creates 64% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 76 away

1.55

creates per match

0.91

0.97

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Frosinone

1.55

Reggiana

0.91

allows per match

Frosinone

0.97

Reggiana

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

77%

Frosinone or Reggiana

74%

Draw or Reggiana

49%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

26%

Reggiana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

79%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Reggiana 1+ goals

61%

Reggiana 2+ goals

24%

Reggiana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

69%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 116 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.55 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Frosinone defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frosinone scores more

51%

level

26%

Reggiana scores more

23%

Frosinone at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

I. Koutsoupias

Frosinone · M

8.7

Match Events

34'

Lorenzo Libutti

42'

A. Sersanti

43'

Antonio Vergara

46'

E. Pecorino← E. Darboe

59'

F. Ghedjemis← L. Canotto

59'

B. Kone← E. Bohinen

67'

M. Portanova← C. Gondo

67'

R. Fiamozzi← L. Lucchesi

70'

T. Begić← G. Kvernadze

79'

A. Partipilo← G. Di Chiara

80'

T. Reinhart← E. Kabashi

80'

L. Vido← N. Girma

84'

Ben Lhassine Kone

85'

Tobías Reinhart

88'

M. Marras← A. Vergara

89'

Farès Ghedjemis

90+2'

I. Koutsoupias↳ A. Partipilo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneReggiana

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots10

8Corners3

17Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots10

7On Target2

5Off Target5

5Blocked3

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

444Total Passes332

386Accurate Passes276

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1