Frosinone 1–0 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reggiana

G. Kvernadze 57'

1/24/2026

Serie B · Round 21Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Frosinone42%

×Draw25%

Reggiana33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

Frosinone

1.52

Reggiana

1.33

Frosinone creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.92

creates per match

1.48

1.19

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Frosinone

1.92

Reggiana

1.48

allows per match

Frosinone

1.19

Reggiana

1.13

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-1.08scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.41scores more

Reggiana-1.08scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

67%

Frosinone or Reggiana

75%

Draw or Reggiana

58%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

21%

Reggiana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

78%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Reggiana 1+ goals

74%

Reggiana 2+ goals

38%

Reggiana 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

56%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.19 · 15 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.92 + Reggiana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reggiana attack 1.48 + Frosinone defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frosinone scores more

42%

level

25%

Reggiana scores more

33%

Frosinone at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

G. Kvernadze

Frosinone · M

8.0

Match Events

23'

Tobías Reinhart

39'

Matteo Rover

57'

G. Kvernadze↳ M. Cichella

65'

A. Tripaldelli← A. Bozzolan

69'

Francesco Gelli

70'

A. Raimondo← M. Zilli

74'

Charlys

74'

L. Belardinelli← Charlys

75'

M. Lambourde← N. Girma

76'

R. Marchizza← F. Gelli

79'

Gabriele Bracaglia

80'

K. Bozhanaj← M. Portanova

80'

A. Novakovich← C. Gondo

86'

G. Calvani← G. Bracaglia

86'

E. Vergani← G. Kvernadze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneReggiana

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots11

1.51Expected Goals (xG)1.20

7Corners2

18Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target3

9Off Target8

3Blocked0

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

389Total Passes275

298Accurate Passes193

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1