Reggiana 1–2 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cesena

M. Portanova 27'

C. Shpendi 63', 30' (pen)

1/17/2026

Serie B · Round 20MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Reggiana34%

×Draw28%

Cesena39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.25

Reggiana

1.15

Cesena

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

0.91

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Reggiana

0.91

Cesena

1.17

allows per match

Reggiana

1.32

Cesena

1.38

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

Reggiana-0.11scores less

Cesena-0.72scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

61%

Reggiana or Cesena

72%

Draw or Cesena

66%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

14%

Cesena wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

68%

Reggiana 2+ goals

32%

Reggiana 3+ goals

11%

Cesena 1+ goals

71%

Cesena 2+ goals

36%

Cesena 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

47%

Cesena (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cesena attack 1.17 + Reggiana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reggiana scores more

34%

level

28%

Cesena scores more

39%

Cesena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Shpendi

Cesena · F

7.9

Match Events

21'

Andrea Ciofi

27'

M. Portanova↳ Charlys

29'

Charlys

30'

C. ShpendiPenalty

42'

Giovanni Zaro

45+2'

Riccardo CiervoGoal cancelled

57'

M. Francesconi← D. Bisoli

57'

M. Guidi← A. Ciofi

59'

L. Belardinelli← Charlys

63'

C. Shpendi↳ M. Castagnetti

73'

M. Lambourde← N. Girma

79'

M. Sampirisi← A. Papetti

79'

K. Bozhanaj← M. Rover

79'

A. Novakovich← C. Gondo

80'

V. Magni← G. Frabotta

80'

S. Bastoni← T. Berti

83'

M. Olivieri← C. Shpendi

90'

Paolo Rozzio

90+1'

Vittorio Magni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReggianaCesena

Overview

44%Possession56%

18Total Shots9

1.67Expected Goals (xG)2.08

4Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target5

7Off Target1

6Blocked3

12Inside Box8

6Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

408Total Passes535

347Accurate Passes472

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1