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Cesena vs Reggiana — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reggiana
Reggiana
C. Shpendi 65'
S. Pettinari 56'
11/23/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 14Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cesena46%
×Draw26%
Reggiana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.46
Reggiana
1.08

Cesena creates 35% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 76 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.39
Reggiana
0.91

allows per match

Cesena
1.26
Reggiana
1.53

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par
Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Reggiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
72%
Cesena or Reggiana
74%
Draw or Reggiana
54%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
22%
Reggiana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
77%
Cesena 2+ goals
43%
Cesena 3+ goals
18%
Reggiana 1+ goals
66%
Reggiana 2+ goals
29%
Reggiana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
62%
Reggiana (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.39 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Cesena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cesena scores more
46%
level
26%
Reggiana scores more
28%

Cesena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
F. BardiReggianaReggiana · G
8.3

Match Events

8'
Giacomo Calò
56'
S. Pettinari
61'
A. Kargbo← M. Antonucci
61'
R. Celia← D. Donnarumma
61'
A. Vergara← S. Pettinari
61'
A. Sersanti← R. Fiamozzi
65'
C. Shpendi
66'
Emanuele Adamo
66'
Francesco Bardi
69'
L. Mendicino← G. Calò
69'
J. Ceesay← E. Adamo
70'
Antonio Vergara
77'
E. Kabashi← M. Marras
83'
E. Tavşan← T. Berti
88'
L. Libutti← L. Ignacchiti
89'
L. Vido← C. Gondo
90+2'
Leonardo Mendicino

Possession

53%Cesena

Shots

22Cesena

Pass accuracy

51%Cesena

Statistics

CesenaReggiana
Overview
53%Possession47%
22Total Shots7
11Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
22Total Shots7
8On Target3
7Off Target3
7Blocked1
10Inside Box4
12Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
457Total Passes418
377Accurate Passes330
82%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Reggiana

Cesena and Reggiana drew 1-1 in Serie B on November 23, 2024.

Goals: S. Pettinari (56'), C. Shpendi (65').

Cesena controlled possession (53%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.