Reggiana 2–2 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Carrarese

L. Vido 82'

N. Girma 26'

E. Zuelli 57'

G. Guarino 10'

2/22/2025

Serie B · Round 27MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Reggiana44%

×Draw27%

Carrarese29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.09

Reggiana

1.39

Carrarese

1.09

Reggiana creates 28% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

1.03

creates per match

0.95

1.24

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Reggiana

1.03

Carrarese

0.95

allows per match

Reggiana

1.24

Carrarese

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par

Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

71%

Reggiana or Carrarese

73%

Draw or Carrarese

56%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

21%

Carrarese wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

75%

Reggiana 2+ goals

40%

Reggiana 3+ goals

16%

Carrarese 1+ goals

66%

Carrarese 2+ goals

30%

Carrarese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

60%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reggiana scores more

44%

level

27%

Carrarese scores more

29%

Reggiana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Zuelli

Carrarese · M

7.5

Match Events

10'

G. Guarino↳ M. Cicconi

17'

26'

42'

49'

57'

E. Zuelli↳ S. Giovane

58'

L. Vido← E. Kabashi

60'

D. Bouah← S. Zanon

67'

G. Manzari← S. Giovane

68'

C. Gondo← A. Vergara

68'

M. Maggio← J. Sosa

68'

M. Marras← M. Portanova

68'

L. Cherubini← F. Melegoni

75'

Manuel Cicconi

80'

L. Cigarini← N. Girma

82'

L. Vido

84'

L. Capezzi← N. Schiavi

84'

N. Belloni← M. Cicconi

85'

Niccolò Belloni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReggianaCarrarese

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots10

5Corners4

8Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target3

3Off Target4

4Blocked3

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

514Total Passes422

421Accurate Passes311

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0