Carrarese 0–0 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carrarese

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reggiana

9/28/2024

Serie B · Round 7Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese49%

×Draw27%

Reggiana24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.92

Carrarese

1.43

Reggiana

0.92

Carrarese creates 55% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

1.32

creates per match

0.91

0.92

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Carrarese

1.32

Reggiana

0.91

allows per match

Carrarese

0.92

Reggiana

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par

Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

76%

Carrarese or Reggiana

73%

Draw or Reggiana

51%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

24%

Reggiana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

76%

Carrarese 2+ goals

42%

Carrarese 3+ goals

17%

Reggiana 1+ goals

60%

Reggiana 2+ goals

23%

Reggiana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

67%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carrarese scores more

49%

level

27%

Reggiana scores more

24%

Carrarese at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Bardi

Reggiana · G

8.5

Match Events

3'

25'

26'

29'

46'

M. Marras← A. Vergara

50'

Andrea Meroni

54'

Manuel Marras

59'

S. Giovane← L. Capezzi

59'

G. Panico← A. Capello

62'

Hjörtur Hermannsson

62'

L. Vido← R. Fiamozzi

66'

M. Coppolaro← H. Hermannsson

67'

S. Zanon← D. Bouah

69'

L. Lucchesi← A. Sersanti

70'

L. Ignacchiti← L. Štulac

75'

L. Cerri← L. Cherubini

83'

C. Gondo← O. Okwonkwo

89'

Giuseppe Panico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseReggiana

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots10

5Corners5

10Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target4

4Off Target4

7Blocked2

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

448Total Passes358

360Accurate Passes265

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1