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Almirante Brown vs Comunicaciones — Primera B Metropolitana 2017

Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
I. Colombini 53'
C. Canan 35'
L. Banegas 50' (pen)
J. Rodríguez 9'
9/27/2017Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 1Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Almirante Brown43%
×Draw30%
Comunicaciones27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almirante Brown
1.17
Comunicaciones
0.85

Almirante Brown creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 140 away

creates per match

Almirante Brown
1.14
Comunicaciones
1.01

allows per match

Almirante Brown
0.69
Comunicaciones
1.20

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par
Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Comunicaciones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw
73%
Almirante Brown or Comunicaciones
70%
Draw or Comunicaciones
57%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+
19%
Comunicaciones wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals
69%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
33%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
11%
Comunicaciones 1+ goals
57%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
21%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
62%
Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 1.14 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Comunicaciones attack 1.01 + Almirante Brown defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Almirante Brown scores more
43%
level
30%
Comunicaciones scores more
27%

Almirante Brown at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
J. Rodríguez
35'
C. Canan
50'
L. BanegasPenalty
53'
I. Colombini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almirante Brown 2 – 2 Comunicaciones

Almirante Brown and Comunicaciones drew 2-2 in Primera B Metropolitana on September 27, 2017.

Goals: J. Rodríguez (9'), C. Canan (35'), L. Banegas (50' pen), I. Colombini (53').

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Los Polvorines, Provincia de Buenos Aires.