Comunicaciones 0–1 Almirante Brown: Result & Stats

Comunicaciones

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Almirante Brown

C. Varela 33'

10/21/2019

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 11Estadio Alfredo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Comunicaciones40%

×Draw30%

Almirante Brown30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComunicacionesExpected goals in this matchAlmirante Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.96

Comunicaciones

1.15

Almirante Brown

0.96

Comunicaciones creates 20% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 34 away

1.16

creates per match

0.97

0.95

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Comunicaciones

1.16

Almirante Brown

0.97

allows per match

Comunicaciones

0.95

Almirante Brown

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Almirante Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw

70%

Comunicaciones or Almirante Brown

70%

Draw or Almirante Brown

60%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

17%

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

68%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

32%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

11%

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

62%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

25%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

57%

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 145 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.16 + Almirante Brown defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Almirante Brown attack 0.97 + Comunicaciones defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Comunicaciones scores more

40%

level

30%

Almirante Brown scores more

30%

Comunicaciones at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

C. Varela

53'

J. Goya← R. Vélez

64'

T. Villoldo← J. Ibáñez

68'

P. Villalba← D. Nakache

73'

S. Tossi← M. Ruiz

76'

F. Barrionuevo← M. Scatolaro

Comunicaciones

Almirante

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Franchini

68'▲P. Villalba←▼D. Nakache

73'▲S. Tossi←▼M. Ruiz

76'▲F. Barrionuevo←▼M. Scatolaro

Comunicaciones substitutes

VillalbaTossiBarrionuevo

Manager: J. Benítez

53'▲J. Goya←▼R. Vélez

64'▲T. Villoldo←▼J. Ibáñez

Almirante Brown substitutes

GoyaVilloldo